PORTLAND, Maine — The hotly contested US Senate race in Maine had not been decided by late Wednesday morning, but Republican incumbent Susan Collins held a formidable and possibly insurmountable lead against Democrat Sara Gideon.
But this race could be far from over: Collins was barely above the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid the recalculations of Maine’s ranked-choice voting system.
With 93 percent of the vote counted at 11:30 a.m., Collins led Gideon, 51 percent to 42 percent, in the four-candidate race. However, if the senator dips below 50 percent after all the votes are counted, the second preferences of the last-place finisher will be allocated.
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That process, which could last more than a week, might be enough to boost Collins back over 50 percent and make her a winner. If she does not reach a majority in that round, the second choices of the third-place finisher will be distributed.
But at the moment, the combined votes for the trailing candidates — progressive Lisa Savage and conservative Max Linn — would not be enough to close Gideon’s gap with Collins.
The size of that gap came as a surprise considering that Gideon, the speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, had maintained a slight lead over Collins in recent polls. As a result, many media outlets had been writing Collins’s political obituary, citing criticism within Maine about her controversial vote to nominate Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court and her decision to acquit President Trump during his impeachment trial.
But Gideon did not benefit as much as expected from the more independent and left-leaning communities along Maine’s southern and mid-coast. In town after town in the state’s blue belt, she trailed Joe Biden’s victorious margins against Trump.
In the city of Saco, Gideon defeated Collins, 6,333 to 5,536. However, Biden’s margin over the president was 7,794 to 4,497. In York, Gideon won, 5,191 to 4,104. Biden rolled up a victory of 6,117 to 3,352.
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Maybe the Collins campaign’s references to Gideon’s roots in Rhode Island played a role. Maybe Gideon’s many negative ads against Collins contributed to voter fatigue in what the Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks political advertising, called the most negative Senate race in the country.
And maybe many Mainers, in the end, are simply comfortable with what they know.
Collins was buoyant late on Election Night when she addressed supporters outside the Bangor hotel where she tracked the results.
“We’re doing really well, but I know it’s not over until it’s over,” Collins said.
“My opponent certainly has thrown everything at me but the kitchen sink. In fact, I think that’s coming next,” she added. “The other side thought they could come to Maine and just run negative ads, dump loads and loads, millions of dollars, and just buy this Senate seat.
“But is that the Maine way? No, it certainly is not.”
Shortly after midnight Wednesday, the Gideon camp issued a statement in a subdued hotel headquarters. The candidate did not address the media who had gathered there.
“It’s clear this race will not be called tonight, and we are prepared to see it through to the finish,” the Gideon campaign said. “Over the coming days, we will make sure that every Mainer has their voice heard in this election.”
Brian MacQuarrie can be reached at brian.macquarrie@globe.com.
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Collins has strong lead, but ranked-choice voting could come into play - The Boston Globe
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