Ignoring the outlier of best picture, the critics' selections are eerily accurate predictors of who goes on to win Academy Awards.
Renewed criticisms against the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and its Golden Globe Awards have many in the industry again rethinking the top of the awards-season almanac — namely, who gets to set the tone in the run-up to the Oscars.
The Critics Choice Awards are a natural choice for prognosticator, as the second major kudos on the calendar arriving one week after the Globes, on March 7. And while critics are hardly immune to controversy of their own, they're surprisingly reliable predictors of who'll get an Oscar. The roughly 400 movie branch members of the Critics Choice Association have voted in line with The Film Academy 73 percent of the time in the six major categories — best picture, best director and the four acting races — for the past five years. The odds are best in the supporting actress category, with the critics' choice mirroring Oscar's without error since 2010.
As for discrepancies, best picture and best actress remain wild cards. In 2019, the Critics actually gave out two best actress trophies — neither going to eventual Academy Award recipient Olivia Colman.
This story first appeared in the March 3 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.
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March 05, 2021 at 10:00PM
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How Often Do Oscar Voters Agree With the Critics Choice Awards Picks? - Hollywood Reporter
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